Here is the updated assessment now being heard in important capitals in the region: normalization with Saudi Arabia is dead, at least for the foreseeable future. The strategic decision to pursue reconciliation with Israel has been replaced by a wild incitement campaign, whose depth and damage are questionable in terms of awareness. When Qatar’s “plastic empire” attacks Israel via Al Jazeera, it is very harmful—but when the preacher in Mecca poisons the entire Sunni world against Israelis, that is something else entirely.
Over the past month, Al Arabiya has been worse than Al Jazeera in the texts broadcast against any normalization with Israel. Saudi podcasters who specialize in luxury cars or sports are suddenly cursing Zionism and the Abraham Accords. The broader context is the Saudi-Emirati military confrontation in Yemen—an attack that should greatly worry Israel and the United States, and that delights the Houthis, who watch their enemies fight one another.
Why is this happening? Strangely, Israel has fallen victim to its historic success in severely damaging Iran’s nuclear project and its proxy network. In 2015, the Saudi king sent Netanyahu a note congratulating him on his speech to Congress against the nuclear deal. That is where the seeds of cooperation with the moderate Sunni states were sown, culminating in the Abraham Accords. When concern over Iran reached its peak and interest in the Palestinian issue reached a low point, the de facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman, embarked on a campaign to prepare hearts for peace with Israel. The date was late September 2023.
October 7 changed everything: it both reignited Arab interest in the Palestinian issue and led to an Israel–Iran war on seven fronts. Saudi Arabia received, for free, the goods it wanted in Tehran, and the price it demanded on the Palestinian issue rose sharply. Contrary to the impression created, Netanyahu and Dermer were not particularly eager to pay any price to the Saudis either. “If not, then not—no force,” Netanyahu said in one cabinet meeting.
Now, with the Saudis no longer celebrating the Abraham Accords, they are trying to undermine their foundations of support, from Morocco to the Emirates. Someone I spoke with this week used an Arab proverb to explain it: “He who cannot reach the grapes says they are sour.” I suggested an Israeli version, straight from air-defense battle lore: “If I don’t fly, nobody flies.”
Donald Trump has a move or two available in Riyadh. Israel and its friends in the region should ask him to use his influence to halt the toxic campaign against his main international legacy and make clear that an attack on the accords is an attack on him.
