I do not know which international source leaked, just before the attack, that the Saudi ruler was pushing with all his might for a strike against Iran. But whoever did so possessed both natural malice and perfect timing. One can only imagine the hysteria in Riyadh when the truth was revealed publicly: while Saudi Arabia condemned the aggressive Israelis, its ruler Mohammed bin Salman was urging them to strike the great Shiite enemy.
Then the war began. Saudi Arabia’s major oil facilities were attacked, and Israel began receiving requests from Riyadh to strike specific targets in Iran to prevent further danger to the kingdom’s flagship industry. Inciting publicly, pleading privately. Whoever decided to expose them did the world a favor.
The Gulf states took hits this week unlike anything they had experienced before. For so many years they walked a tightrope—until the ayatollahs cut it beneath their feet. The countries for whom stability is the highest value suddenly starred across the globe with columns of smoke and echoes of explosions.
The United Arab Emirates took the heaviest blow. Close to two-thirds of all the missiles and drones launched by Iran were aimed there.
A senior Emirati official told me this week, that there are five reasons for this. First, we are closer. Israel is dealing with the long-range ballistic missiles, leaving the shorter-range missiles for us. Second, we are more international. Images of the Burj Khalifa surrounded by smoke or of a burning port near the artificial palm-shaped island echo around the world. Third, Iran believes we are more vulnerable, because ninety percent of the population are foreign nationals and our economic model depends heavily on foreign investors and tourism. Fourth, because we are a Muslim state that represents everything Iran is not—the almost only state in the Middle East that exports oil but does not export terrorism. Fifth—and most important—because of you. Relations with Israel have changed the Middle East. They were aimed first and foremost at the Iranian axis. Nearly six years later, Iran is trying to settle the score.
The past two years have been difficult for Israel’s efforts to integrate into the region. The war in Gaza made life unbearable for the Abraham Accords countries and prevented others from joining them. It also helped Turkey and Qatar—the Muslim Brotherhood’s patrons—extend their influence over additional countries that normally would have been wary of extreme Sunni movements.
But perhaps something good will come out of this. Iran’s violent assault on the Gulf states reminds millions in the Arab world that the divide is not between Jews and Muslims, but between fanatics and moderates. And the strong bond between Israel and the United States may weaken the Turks, who had already begun warming up to the idea of becoming the rulers of the Middle East. Gaza took—Tehran will give.
This is an excerpt from my weekly column in Israel Hayom.
