Despite holding one of the most powerful positions in government, the polls show Israel’s finance minister struggling to make it into the Knesset in the next elections. But while many are wondering why he seems to be so unpopular, the truth is that Bezalel Smotrich has always struggled in the polls.
I explored this in my Shabbat column in Israel Hayom, an excerpt of which is below. You can read it on Israel Hayom’s website here.
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What happened to Bezalel Smotrich? Many have been asking this for a long time, seeing the polls that place him on the edge of the electoral threshold. Some blame his disconnect from voters on the ultra-Orthodox draft law, while others link it to his unpopular tenure as finance minister. The truth? Nothing happened. The world goes on as usual.
Ahead of the last election, as the talks for a technical merger with Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party dragged on, the polls reflected the same picture: Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party hovering near the threshold, and Otzma Yehudit easily passing.
In fact, since its founding in 1999 as “Tkuma,” across 11 consecutive elections, the National-Haredi party never dared run alone. It always ran with Benny Begin; Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu; the national-religious Mafdal; Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home, and most recently Ben Gvir. Indeed, Israel’s National-Haredi population was never large enough to clear the current threshold. Ironically, the party is now stronger than ever. After a quarter century, natural growth has had its effect, and Smotrich may now pass the threshold alone.
Whether he’ll take that risk is another question. The proposal he brought this week to cancel party primaries is more significant than it seems on face value. Smotrich also demanded to secure his position as party head and add another reserved slot of his choice. In some parties, they guarantee representation for Ethiopians or Druze; in Religious Zionism, they guarantee representation for what former MK Uri Orbach called “the normal religious”: neither National-Religious, nor those on the “soft” end of the religious spectrum.
The thinking is that with an attractive candidate, say Brigadier General Ofer Winter, or a well-known reservist, the party could add just enough to its base to pass the threshold. Winter intends to run, and is even preparing to form his own party, but may compromise for a top slot and ministerial post.
Netanyahu, of course, has different plans entirely: to pit Smotrich and Ben Gvir against one another. He’s very worried about wasted votes falling below the threshold, a risk to his bloc in the upcoming election, but not to his rivals. On paper it seems impossible, since the enmity between the finance minister and national security minister should rule out cooperation. But trust Netanyahu not to let petty details block his way. The idea: another purely technical bloc, only to split on election night. Remember, Ben Gvir has never passed the threshold alone either. The bonus for Ben Gvir: he’d lead the list. Smotrich’s payoff: more seats than he’d get in any other scenario.
As before, it will end with a summit by Bibi’s pool in Caesarea.
