The Israeli embassy in Ankara has been closed and gathering dust since October 7, while the consulate in Istanbul opens only rarely, when two brave diplomats risk their lives and go there for a few days each month. The Turks, on the other hand—take note—have no fewer than 50 diplomats here: 30 in Tel Aviv and 20 in Jerusalem. They’re not cultivating ties with Israel—they’re working to undermine it from within. When Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran some 15 months ago, the Turkish flag at the embassy in Tel Aviv was lowered to half-mast in mourning.
The ayatollah regime in Tehran has not yet fallen, but one can already see on the horizon the prophecy of the legendary Middle East scholar Bernard Lewis—that Iran would become Turkey, and Turkey would become Iran. 37 percent of Turks see Israel as an existential threat. Last year, Israel was added to the famous “Red Book,” Turkey’s national security threat list.
Is Israel aware of the danger? Absolutely. Is it acting on it? Not nearly enough. A well-informed Israeli explained that Turkey accuses us of what it wants to do. When Erdogan claims that Netanyahu desires “Greater Israel,” it’s because Turkey itself has not abandoned dreams of imperial expansion. When it accuses Israel of genocide—this comes from a state that itself committed a monstrous genocide, second only to the Holocaust.
Israel clashes with Turkey in Syria yet fails to grasp the magnitude of the threat. Erdogan wants to be everything—Khan, Caliph, Emperor. Khan of all Turkic peoples (the “-stan” countries), Emperor of the Balkan states once ruled by the Ottoman Empire, and Caliph of the entire Muslim world. That’s why Turkey builds military bases in Sri Lanka, supplies air defense systems to Bangladesh, and aids Pakistan against India. Israel, meanwhile, is stuck like a bone in the throat.
There was a brief thaw in 2023, climaxing with a Netanyahu-Erdogan meeting just before October 7. Back then, the President’s Residence nicknamed the Turkish ruler “Erdogan, Don’t Answer.” In 2023, he was in distress, facing a hostile Democratic administration in Washington. Now he’s a dear friend of Trump, and if another Democratic administration takes power—Israel will not be there with an open door.
And while the antisemitic genie won’t be returning to its bottle anytime soon, there is something Israel can do: close the Turkish cultural institute in East Jerusalem, a hub of incitement in and of itself; reduce the size of the Turkish diplomatic mission; fight relentlessly against any Turkish presence in Gaza; and cooperate with India against the shared threat from Ankara.
But this is a dangerous and complex threat—no less than the Iranian one, and much harder to handle. A few weeks ago, after the attempted assassination in Doha, a senior American official told his Israeli counterpart: “You know they’re NATO members—if you’d attacked Istanbul, we’d have been obligated to defend them.” He pretended to joke, but his Israeli interlocutors didn’t laugh.
The above is an excerpt from my Shabbat column in Israel Hayom. Read it on Israel Hayom’s website here.
