“Democracy does not die in a single blow, but in a hundred small blows,” said Supreme Court President Yitzhak Amit in one of the hearings. By the same logic, annexation does not have to come in a single declaration but in a hundred small steps. This week the government took a not-so-small step: it opened the possibility for Israeli companies to purchase land in Judea and Samaria and to register it, for the first time since 1967.
Aside from Yair Golan, who tossed out a comment about it in a radio interview, none of the opposition leaders said a word. Not Lapid, not Eisenkot, not Gantz, certainly not Lieberman or Bennett. When people speak about Israeli society shifting to the right, they do not mean that everyone will vote for Ben Gvir or Netanyahu. They mean exactly this: steps that were once at the heart of Israel’s fiercest disputes are now consensus. Another example? If, after the elections, a miracle were to occur and Netanyahu formed a government together with Lieberman and Bennett, Smotrich and the ultra-Orthodox, it would be defined as a broad national unity government. A decade ago, when Lieberman joined that same kind of government, Haaretz was shaken by what it called an extreme right-wing government, and the late journalist Roni Daniel spoke about the possibility that his children would not remain in the country.
That is the background to Lapid’s unusual warning this week: “I’m no longer sure we’ll win.” The “change bloc” faces a demographic challenge: since the last election, six hundred thousand new voters have been added—a record since the founding of the state. The overwhelming majority are ultra-Orthodox, religious-nationalist, residents of the periphery, and Arabs. In the same period, two hundred thousand people have died or left the country—also a record. That is a net difference of two to three seats.
The change bloc benefits from early and efficient organization that prevents wasted votes. Meanwhile, nine seats are currently being burned below the electoral threshold by parties that do not rule out Netanyahu (Bezalel Smotrich, Yoaz Hendel, Benny Gantz). The assumption, however, is that those votes will not ultimately be wasted. The public agenda has been almost entirely focused on ultra-Orthodox draft evasion, but slowly Odeh, Abbas, and Tibi—who nearly disappeared for years—are returning to public consciousness and voting considerations.
What Lapid said is that victory is not in the bag—he is right. In his view, Yesh Atid should lead the bloc, and that can of course be debated. But it is clear that there is no way to decide the contest without votes from right-wing Netanyahu-disappointed voters—those who want settlement in Judea and Samaria, a toned-down judicial reform, and a strengthened draft law.
There is a phrase in Israel: “The shell that kills you is the one whose whistle you do not hear.” What threatens the change bloc is not internal squabbles nor fragile micro-parties like “The Reservists,” but a new party of that kind: former Likudniks, a right wing not tainted by October 7.
Former Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon reached a plea deal this week that allows him to return; Yuli Edelstein is exploring options; Gilad Erdan, former ambassador to the UN, is appearing more frequently in studios.
