In Ankara, a man suddenly woke up in the morning and discovered he is not quite as big as he thought. The year 2025 in the Middle East revolved around the question of whether Turkey was gradually becoming a strategic partner of the United States like Israel. Trump invested in Erdogan the way he invested in Netanyahu, brought him into civilian activity in Gaza, half-rebuked the Israeli prime minister in front of the cameras (“Erdogan is my friend, Bibi understands that”), and even announced that he would sell him F-35s, just like Israel.
Well, other F-35s are now starring in the skies of the Middle East. Turkey’s ruler thought Trump consulted him every step of the way, and yet a respectable regional war organized itself without him being in the loop. The man who presides over what is considered the most intimidating army in the Middle East discovered—along with the whole world—the capabilities and power of the Israeli Air Force and intelligence services, and the depth of cooperation with the U.S. military. He saw, and was astonished.
The Turks’ distress is immense. The best-case scenario for them was and remains a weak Iran that, on the one hand, continues to sell them gas dirt cheap; on the other hand, curbs Kurdish expansionist ambitions; and on the third hand, cannot serve as a rival for regional control or, God forbid, even cooperate with Israel.
As if all that were not enough, they are very worried about the renewed romance between the United States and the Kurds, whom they detest, to the point of fantasies about conquering parts of Iran (imagine Israel waking up one morning to discover that Trump is in direct talks with the Hamas leadership so that they can invade Egypt with American weapons). Fortunately for him, the Kurds are still suspicious of the United States since they were sold out—though recently, to the Syrian regime.
Now, as Erdogan follows the news about the situation, he also has to deal with higher energy prices while Turkey’s inflation rises and interest rates are murderous.
The Turkish solution, uncharacteristically, is to sing songs of peace. The Turkish dictator who convinced himself and his people that Israel was about to attack Ankara because of a biblical fantasy keeps overlooking Iranian launches into his territory, imagining they are rain. He is trying to initiate negotiations, so far in vain. This week, the United States asked to use its base in eastern Turkey for the war, a Trumpian way of testing who is with us and who is against us. Erdogan nearly swallowed his tongue.
