Somewhat like in the recent Torah portions of Exodus, Hamas—like Pharaoh—understands that the party is over. That after the seven good years (or seventeen, in their case), the bad years arrive. To survive, they must change. Like a polar bear entering hibernation, knowing that what matters now is simply staying alive. Hamas, one of the most adaptive organizations in the world, is completing its transition from a governing authority to a guerrilla organization and then into a dormant underground movement.
The transition began in April 2024, when mourning was declared over the destruction of its military wing—its bases, missiles, and leadership. After mourning came acceptance. The goal is singular: Hamas must survive.
Hostages? We’ll return them all and not cause too much trouble. Israel and the U.S. object to certain figures we want to appoint to a committee? Fine—we’ll bring others. Israel tries to provoke us into responding? No problem, we’ll sit quietly. There are 150 operatives in Rafah who could reignite everything? Fine, we’ll give them up. A multinational force? We’ll oppose it at first; if that fails, no big deal—Plan B is that the force won’t enter Gaza but will instead guard the Yellow Line. Do whatever it takes to survive.
All in the name of keeping things quiet. They know Israel has long been addicted to quiet, and they’re not convinced the detox program of the past two years will hold. They’re betting that Trump wants achievements, not noise. So they maneuver indirectly on weapons, work intensively with Egypt, Turkey and Qatar to keep them on their side. They prefer causing Israel trouble in international forums rather than harming soldiers right now. Raise more money, secure more donations, rebuild quietly.
There is another thing almost completely ignored in Israel: Hamas has been in an internal election period. This is part of its attempt to present itself to the world as a legitimate, democratic movement. Khalil al-Hayya and his camp ran against Khaled Mashal and his faction. It is no coincidence that Mashal was recently filmed delivering a fiery speech that in no way reflects the conciliatory posture of the man at odds with Iran.
Europeans, of course, buy these stories. Americans raise an eyebrow but want quiet. And Israel, for its part, is currently more focused on Iran and Syria than on Gaza. From Hamas’s perspective, it’s a perfect time to survive.
How do you change that? Through a military operation that uproots the organization’s weapons at the root—certainly not by withdrawing from the Yellow Line. “There is a plan,” Netanyahu said this week in Florida, repeating: “There is a plan.” When will it be implemented, as long as the president still believes in disarmament? On that, the answer was more evasive: “What’s the rush?”
