As the gossip columns would say: Naftali and Ayelet are done. The political system’s longest-standing duo has ended their partnership. For 13 years, they were inseparable, moving through five different parties together. But even without an official announcement, it’s over. Over the past year, Ayelet Shaked, Bennett’s right-wing Jiminy Cricket, has continued to make the studio rounds defending her former client. But after he announced the addition of two women to his party she fell silent. When he brought on strategic adviser Lior Chorev, who had attacked her for years on Twitter, she remained quiet. And when he formed a party with Lapid, it became perfectly clear the house had fallen apart.
In the last elections, Bennett voted for Shaked’s short-lived party, “The Jewish Home,” which failed to pass the electoral threshold. It was a glorious failure. A failure because she didn’t cross the threshold; glorious because 56,000 voters chose her knowing with certainty their vote would be thrown in the trash. As fate would have it, this “seat and a half” is one of the most important factors in the current election cycle.
Polls showing high personal opposition to Shaked are slightly misleading. The right is furious with her over her role in the change government, while the center-left boils over the fact she prevented the passing of the “Defendant’s Law,” which would have banned politicians under criminal indictment (like Netanyahu) from forming a government. But what matters are the mandates in the political center: non-“Anyone But Bibi” change-seekers, non-Bibi right-wingers, politically homeless religious Zionists and free-market supporters who refuse a government with Arab parties.
The most prominent option of all is teaming up with Lieberman. The Bennett-Lapid union cleared a crucial niche for him among precisely these voters, and reserving Shaked as his number two would make it easier for him to capture some of those votes. The two have maintained a good relationship for years.
A new right-wing party is also a possibility. Right now, when it comes to a list that seeks unity and right-wing policies but isn’t beholden to the ultra-Orthodox, there is high demand but no real supply.
And there is also a third option, which sounds, admittedly, entirely imaginary: that Netanyahu would reserve a spot for Shaked in the Likud. The Netanyahu family’s historical loathing of Shaked is well-known in Israel. But if Shaked were to declare that Bennett is about to form a government with the left and the Arabs, she would be handing Netanyahu a massive gift that no one else can provide. Will Netanyahu be willing to give a gift in return?
This is an excerpt from my weekly column in Israel Hayom.
