There are only two actors in the world who believe that conquering Gaza City will bring about Hamas’ defeat and the end of the war. The first is Benjamin Netanyahu. The second, ironically, is Hamas.
In IDF briefings, officials speak of 2,000 terrorists waiting in the strip’s capital. The real number is 10,000. Here’s the twist: until now, when the army operated step by step, terrorists fled from combat zones into the humanitarian areas to preserve their strength — and lives. Indeed, there are soldiers who have been operating in the strip for months without seeing a single terrorist with their own eyes.
Now, Hamas operatives are streaming into Gaza City for what they perceive as the ultimate battle.
Hamas’ view is that Israel has gone mad, that Netanyahu has gone mad. Where are the Jews who used to surrender when hostages were on the other side? Where are the Jews who avoided operating in an urban zone with hundreds of thousands of civilians? Amongst Hamas’ external leadership, spirits are high after the failed assassination attempt in Doha. But in Hamas ranks inside Gaza, there’s silence in order to preserve operational security, alongside widespread hysteria ahead of the IDF’s conquest of Gaza City.
And afterwards? Netanyahu believes the fall of the strip’s capital would be like the fall of Jerusalem to the Romans in 70 CE. Masada and a few other outposts would remain, but the war would be decided. The shrinking diplomatic timetable, however, together with low stockpiles of ammunition and legitimacy, may not allow further operations in the central camps. But the cabinet believes that the IDF won’t need to move into the camps in central Gaza. After all, when 95 percent of the strip is cleansed of Hamas and its terror infrastructure, the door will open for an alternative authority to rule Gaza. On the table is an American plan with the involvement of Arab states.
So, what could disrupt Israel’s plans? If the IDF gets bogged down in Gaza City, if the American plan collapses, and if the UAE and Egypt, already on edge, refuse to join in. Where won’t the disruption come from? The United States. Those hoping for Donald Trump to lose patience and break with Israel, or those worried about it, should think again. Here’s proof of how close the ties really are: the White House recently asked Netanyahu confidant Ron Dermer to advise it on an international matter entirely unrelated to Israel or the Middle East.
Of course, if Kamala Harris were in Trump’s place, Israel’s situation would be desperate. Only Washington’s efforts (along with Hungary and the Czech Republic) are standing between Israel and international sanctions. Had Harris been elected, there would have been no strike on Iran’s nuclear site in Fordow, no entry into Gaza City, and the arms embargo would have already begun. Trump, and the wise ties built with him, are all that separate “a people that rises like a lion” from “a people that dwells alone.”
The above is an excerpt from my Shabbat column in Israel Hayom. You can read it on Israel Hayom’s website here.
