The Likud is closely monitoring the strengthening of premier candidates Gadi Eisenkot and Avigdor Liberman with a mix of hope and apprehension. Hope—because for two years, the Likud machine was exclusively calibrated to fight the previous frontrunner, Naftali Bennett, constantly battling over the right-wing votes he supposedly brought as his political dowry. Apprehension—because Eisenkot and Liberman will be much harder to dismantle.
Bennett and Lapid are familiar foils—the Rosencrantz and Guildenstern of Israeli politics—coming complete with a heavily loaded archive of past missteps to exploit. But the Likud has repeatedly failed in its attempts to push Liberman below the electoral threshold, and Eisenkot arrives with a record free of political zigzagging and a biography of service that makes him very difficult to attack.
The working assumption within the Likud is that the ultimate rival for the premiership will be Gadi Eisenkot. Perhaps this is why the “Change Bloc” is in a relentless frenzy of recruiting, mergers, and acquisitions, while on the right, there is nothing new.
The organizing principle in the Likud until today was: we will hit Bennett with a pincer movement. We on the right will brand him a leftist, and the left-wing parties will brand him a rightist. Once he weakens and loses the leadership of the bloc, his desire to form another “change government” will vanish, since he wouldn’t be leading it. That would open the door for his return to the Netanyahu fold. This maneuver forced Bennett into an earlier and fiercer-than-expected battle for the opposition’s votes, which culminated in a unification with Yair Lapid.
That was the idea, but the composition of the “Together” list pretty much thwarts this possibility. So far, there is not a single kippah-wearer or identified right-winger on Bennett’s list. Even if Bennett wanted to crawl into Netanyahu’s coalition tomorrow morning, he has no one to bring with him.
And just as Bennett’s list reflects a pivot toward the opposition’s electorate, Liberman’s list reflects a pivot toward the coalition’s base. The party that began its journey with a clear majority of former Soviet Union immigrants is changing its face. The latest additions are Rafi Ben Shitrit, a bereaved father; Sharon Sharabi, the brother of a hostage; Yisrael Ben Shitrit, a reserve combat soldier; and a senior settler figure, Kobi Eliraz. This reflects an understanding that the Russian electorate, once estimated at 17 seats, is steadily fading, and on the day after, it will be difficult to form a government reliant on Arab parties.
How exactly a coalition emerges from all this math is anyone’s guess.
