There are many ways to look at this election campaign: “Only Bibi” vs. “Anyone but Bibi”; the failure of October 7 vs. the successes of the pager operation and the attack on the Iranian nuclear facility; or judicial reform vs. regime coup. Yet, there is another angle that may ultimately define the elections: Who do you want to rely on less—the Haredi or the Arab parties?
We haven’t seen polling data like this in a long time. There is an almost absolute tie regarding the preferred coalition option. However, the leading preference, at 35 percent, is the belief that it is better to head to new elections than to rely on either faction. This data reveals just how effective a Netanyahu campaign could be among opposition voters if he successfully embeds the claim that Bennett and Eisenkot cannot form a government without Arab support. If faced with that scenario, 12 percent of opposition voters—equivalent to about six mandates—would prefer a coalition with the Haredim, while 38 percent would prefer yet another round of elections. Furthermore, two-thirds of Bennett’s voters, more than half of Eisenkot’s voters, and 80 percent of Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu voters are deeply opposed to a government that leans on the Arab leaders Mansour Abbas and Ahmad Tibi.
On the flip side, the job of Netanyahu’s opponents should be even easier. After all, Netanyahu has no path to a government without the Haredim—a fact that isn’t even denied. Tellingly, a third of Likud voters would prefer new elections over recreating the current coalition. “Without Goldknopf, he has no government” sounds like an effective and catchy slogan.
The fake divorce of the Haredim from the Netanyahu bloc and the fake disavowal of the opposition bloc from the Arab parties do not make much of an impression on the public. A significant portion of the electorate is repulsed by the choice between the two: between non-Zionist parties and anti-Zionist parties. Once again, in-depth data seemingly reveals an opening for a new centrist party that would disavow both extremes.
One more point to consider: against the backdrop of voter disgust with these potential partners, the importance of the polls published between now and Election Day is rising. As long as the change bloc enjoyed more than 61 mandates in the polls, it was exempt from nagging questions about sitting with or relying on the Arab parties. The more the polls show the change bloc strengthening, the more Bennett and Eisenkot will be able to ignore what is undoubtedly their weakest point. In a parallel universe, perhaps Netanyahu would have called for unity with them, and they with him, thereby neutralizing this political minefield. However, their respective voters loathe that possibility even more than they recoil from cooperating with the wings of Israeli society that do not serve in the military.
