This week, the prediction market site Polymarket raised Bennett’s chances of becoming prime minister to 40 percent, roughly tying him with Netanyahu. If I had a million dollars to risk, I would probably diversify and invest equally between the two. But if I had a thousand dollars to go wild with on an “all or nothing” bet, I’d invest it in the person currently given a mere 1 percent chance: Yisrael Beitenu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman.
A week ago, Lieberman announced he would be the next prime minister. The declaration was met with a shrug at best, ignored at worst and ridiculed in the most likely scenario. A rookie mistake. First, the math: the “Together” list is not a single party, but two factions joined together. If the polls are correct, Naftali Bennett will have 14-15 MKs at best, and Lieberman, at worst, eight or nine. Bennett had fewer seats than Lieberman when he demanded the premiership of their short-lived government from Lapid (who had 17 at the time) in 2021.
Unlike the Netanyahu bloc, there is no real hierarchy in the opposition. On what grounds will Lapid, Eisenkot, Bennett and Golan demand that Lieberman settle for finance minister again—and that’s the best-case scenario? What will they tell him if, the day after the elections, he demands the premiership for himself, or else he’ll consider other options? Will Bennett tell him it’s unacceptable and immoral to lead a country with a single-digit number of seats?
Of course, there is a difference between Lieberman in 2026 and Bennett in 2021. The Yisrael Beitenu chairman isn’t currently the tie-breaker between the blocs. His rhetoric against Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox is harsher than any of his partners, and the competition is tough. Ostensibly, he has no choice but to bite his lip and play second or third fiddle in someone else’s concert.
That is true, but Lieberman has a dilemma. While Bennett once had to choose between a right-wing government or a change government, Lieberman seemingly lacks even a single viable option. Some of his closest confidants are convinced he will never again join a coalition relying on the Ra’am party, having been badly burned last time. In other words, he has zero incentive to once again be the silver platter serving up a government supported by Mansour Abbas. The only way to tempt him—if neither the Zionist opposition nor the Netanyahu bloc secures 61 seats—is the grand prize of the prime minister’s office.
Are the chances of this high? Not particularly. Are they higher than 1 percent? Absolutely. To me, it sounds like an interesting opportunity for a calculated bet.
This is an excerpt from my weekly column in Israel Hayom
